With the first quarter of 2017 now behind us, we have seen the three major indexes all gain more than 4.5% so far this year.[1] In fact, the NASDAQ just experienced its best quarter since 2013 due to tech stocks driving growth.[2] 

Despite closing down on Friday, the indexes added to their quarterly gains last week. The S&P 500 grew by 0.80%;the Dow was up 0.32%; and the NASDAQ gained 1.42%.[3] At the same time, international stocks in the MSCI EAFE lost 0.26% for the week.[4]

What else happened last week?

  • Oil gained on word from OPEC

Oil prices experienced their largest weekly gains in 2017, ending above $50 a barrel.[5] This growth is largely a result of speculation that OPEC (an intergovernmental organization of 13 oil-producing countries) will continue its agreement to curb oil output.[6] By reducing supply, the nations aim to reduce the supply glut that drives prices down. 

  • Q4 GDP increased with revisions

The final revisions for fourth quarter GDP beat expectations, coming in at 2.1%, up from the previous estimates of 1.9% growth.[7] This plodding growth is in keeping with the economic recovery we have experienced the past several years. 

  • Inflation hit a key Fed benchmark

When deciding on monetary policy, the Federal Reserve pays close attention to the PCE deflator, an inflation measurement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.[8] They want to see this data above 2%. We learned last week that in February the PCE deflator hit this level for the first time since 2012.[9] If this trend continues, we could see additional interest rate increases this year.[10] 

  • Consumer confidence and sentiment remained high

The Conference Board's March readings for consumer confidence jumped to the highest levels since December 2000, surprising economists who expected the reading to decline from February.[11] The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment readings also showed an increase for March.[12] However, the Michigan survey's chief economist pointed out that participants' sentiment showed a deep partisan divide.[13] With confidence and uncertainty seemingly split along party lines, the effect on spending behaviors remains to be seen.[14] 

So far, the first quarter of 2017 has brought market growth and several positive economic data reports, coupled with heated policy debates occurring in government and the media. Moving forward, we will continue to seek the best opportunities to pursue your goals and keep you informed with the information you need to help make solid decisions. 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

  • Monday: PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending
  • Tuesday: Motor Vehicle Sales, Factory Orders
  • Wednesday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
  • Friday: Employment Situation

Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies. 

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia. 

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. The index is made up of measures of real estate prices in 20 cities and weighted to produce the index.

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of output from U.S. factories and related consumption in the U.S.  It does not include products made by U.S. companies in foreign markets.

The Federal Reserve System (also known as the Federal Reserve and, informally, as the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States. The Federal Reserve System is composed of 12 regional Reserve banks which supervise state member banks. The Federal Reserve System controls the Federal Funds Rate (aka Fed Funds Rate), an important benchmark in financial markets used to influence the supply of money in the U.S. economy.

Inflation is the rise in the prices of goods and services, as happens when spending increases relative to the supply of goods on the market.

Consumer Confidence Index is based on a survey of 5,000 households that attempts to measure the respondent's confidence of current economic conditions and uses 1985 as the starting benchmark.

In accordance with its Statute, the mission of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of  its Member Countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

You cannot invest directly in an index.

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.

[1] http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/31/us-markets.html

[2] http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/31/us-markets.html

[3] http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?period1=1490328000&period2=1490932800&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d

http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history?period1=1490328000&period2=1490932800&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d

http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/history?period1=1490328000&period2=1490932800&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d

[4] https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search

[5] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-31/oil-holds-rebound-above-50-amid-opec-led-cut-extension-momentum

[6] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-31/oil-holds-rebound-above-50-amid-opec-led-cut-extension-momentum

[7] http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2017/3/30/real-gdp-growth-in-q4-was-revised-up-to-a-2.1percent-annual-rate

[8] http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2017/3/31/personal-income-increased-0.4percent-in-february

[9] http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2017/3/31/personal-income-increased-0.4percent-in-february

[10] http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2017/3/31/personal-income-increased-0.4percent-in-february

[11] http://finance.yahoo.com/news/comes-consumer-confidence-133841167.html

[12] http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

[13] http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

[14] http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/